It’s time for the third installment of Predicting the Emmy Nominations — today I’ll be looking at the contenders for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
Apparently this category is pretty deadly — two of last year’s nominees (Breaking Bad‘s Giancarlo Esposito and Mad Men‘s Jared Harris) won’t be eligible since their characters weren’t alive this season! Two-time champ Aaron Paul is a sure-thing to return for his work on Breaking Bad; so is Peter Dinklage, who won two years ago for Game of Thrones. That leaves four spots up for grabs that could go to any number of deserving men.
One actor I’m sure will make the cut is Homeland‘s Mandy Patinkin. Though he was egregiously overlooked last year, I find it hard to believe the former Emmy winner (for Chicago Hope) won’t hear his name called on July 18 — and not just in a “Mandy Patinkin, holla” kind of way from Claire Danes.
Downton Abbey had two nominees here last year, an accomplishment I don’t think will be repeated. Will either Brendan Coyle (John Bates) or Jim Carter (Mr. Carson) make the cut? And what about Mad Men‘s John Slattery, who received four straight nominations before being left off the list last year in favor of his Mad Men co-star Jared Harris? Will he return to the fold now that Harris is out of contention, or will Vincent Kartheiser pick up his first nomination for playing slimy Pete Campbell? Other choices from prestige cable dramas include Noah Emmerich for FX’s The Americans, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau for HBO’s Game of Thrones, Jonathan Banks for AMC’s Breaking Bad, Michael Cudlitz for TNT’s Southland and former nominee Walton Goggins for FX’s Justified. I think any of those guys are more likely to score a nod than their broadcast brethren — The Good Wife’s Josh Charles, Alan Cumming and Chris Noth, and Parenthood‘s Peter Krause. The best broadcast bet is probably Scandal‘s Jeff Perry, but is his role as the manipulative Cyrus too soap-y for the Emmys?
And then there’s the strange case of Corey Stoll, who got great reviews (and a Critic’s Choice Award nomination) for his performance on the Netflix series House of Cards. Will he be the first ever nominee for a show that did not appear on a traditional television network, or is the Academy not ready to take that step? We’ll know soon enough!
UPDATE: When the Emmy ballot was released it was revealed that Bates Motel‘s Freddie Highmore was submitted as Supporting Actor, instead of in the expected Lead Actor category. While this decision makes no sense to me — Highmore plays Norman Bates, clearly the centerpiece of the show –I do think he will score a nomination, and have added him to the list below. He replaces John Slattery, who I had previously thought would get a nod.
Here’s what I believe the final list will look like:
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Freddie Highmore, Bates Motel
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Jeff Perry, Scandal
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Did I leave anyone out? Let me know your predictions for who will be nominated!
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